Job vacancies down slightly in April | Western magazine

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Job postings fell slightly in April, but still pointed to strong employment growth in the months ahead and a further decline in the unemployment rate.

The ANZ job announcement slew showed a 0.5% decline in April, but was still 26.3% higher than a year earlier and 57.3% above pre-levels COVID-19.

“We expect strong demand for labor to lead to solid job gains in the months ahead,” Australian ANZ chief economics officer David Planks said.

“We see the unemployment rate dropping well below 4% in the second half of 2022, which should add to the momentum for higher wage growth.”

The March federal budget projected that the unemployment rate would fall to 3.75% in the coming months, the lowest in nearly 50 years.

Industries such as manufacturing are constrained by skill shortages, although the sector has still shown growth.

The Australian Industry Group’s Manufacturing Performance Index rose another 2.8 points in April to 58.5, its fastest pace since July 2015.

It was the third consecutive month above the 50-point mark, which separates growth from contraction.

Ai Group chief executive Innes Willox said the manufacturing sector is still constrained by difficulties in finding workers, particularly in skilled occupations, as well as input price pressures and rising costs. wages.

“New orders increased further in April and, with many businesses feeling capacity constraints and difficulties securing inputs and staff, order fulfillment pressures are expected to continue in the coming months,” said Mr Willox.

The report comes ahead of an expected increase in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s official exchange rate, the first hike in more than a decade, and follows last week’s exceptionally high inflation figures.

Financial markets are fully priced for a 0.15% cash rate hike to 0.25% when the RBA board meets on Tuesday, after annual inflation soared to 5.1%.

The more interest-rate sensitive core inflation rate jumped to 3.7%, well above the RBA’s 2-3% target.

The anticipated modest increase in the spot rate from a record low of 0.1% should be followed by increases of 0.25% in the following months.

“Having a near-zero cash rate when unemployment is 4% and inflation is above 5% doesn’t make sense,” said AMP chief economist Shane Oliver.

“The experience of the late 1960s and 1970s tells us that the longer high inflation persists, the higher inflation expectations will rise, making it even more difficult to bring inflation down without triggering a recession.”

Australian Associated Press

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